Piehead’s got a great infographic and article on the state of the web. The last sentence is killer – “Technology savvy companies will likely need to continue to segment their rich content into separate desktop and mobile experiences, or deploy both HTML5 and Flash versions of their content.”
I still think that technology savvy, cost conscious, companies are going to dumb down their web experiences to the lowest common denominator instead of producing both HTML5 and Flash versions.
It looks like my assertion that web 3.0 (or whatever) is going to suck has some data behind it.
Check out State of the Web: Flash vs HTML5